Personal Income Tax Reform in China in 2018 and Its Impact on Income Distribution

In the context of personal income tax (PIT) reform in China in 2018, this paper examines some of the major issues of concern regarding the reform and income distribution. Using the China Personal Income Tax Micro‐simulation model, the paper compares the differences between the 2011 and 2018 PIT systems, and finds that residents relying on different income sources may face a large degree of real tax rate change. Once the tax system is altered to PIT 2018, the coverage of PIT for wage earners will decrease from 46.9 to 23.4 percent, the income redistributive effect will drop from 1.95 to 1.22 percent and the PIT's role in fiscal revenue will also be negatively affected. Nevertheless, if individual income continues to grow, the share of PIT in fiscal revenue is expected to return to the 2018 level in 2022, but its income redistribution function is difficult to recover in the short term. The paper finds that the effect of PIT on income distribution depends on the tax structure. Gradual transition to an “entirely comprehensive” tax system when conditions are appropriate will achieve better income redistribution results at a lower average tax rate.     

Segmenting and Understanding Publics in a Social Media Information Sharing Network: An Interactional and Dynamic Approach

This study segments social media publics and analyzes their informational behaviors during organizational crises. With a public-centric perspective, our study highlights how social media publics interact with each other (i.e., interdependence) and share different information through crisis stages (i.e., dynamics). Following the situational approach to segmentation, we identify different types of social media publics (i.e., influentials, broadcasters, and followers) based on their informational behaviors and their positions in an information sharing network. Crisis managers are recommended to pay more attention to publics with higher influence, namely key influentials and broadcasters. In addition, we try to understand social media publics’ changing concerns by analyzing whether and how publics share messages of different themes and forms in different stages of a crisis. Crisis managers are recommended to customize crisis communication content to fit publics’ needs, prioritize organizational resources, and maximize positive communication effect. With big data from Chipotle’s E. coli crisis, we analyzed the Twitter activities surrounding this crisis over a 6-month period. Our segmentation receives initial support from the network analysis and content analysis on the Twitter data, which lays the foundation for effective social media crisis management.     

中国金融系统风险溢出效应研究——基于溢出指数和波动溢出网络

文章基于溢出指数和波动溢出网络方法，从静态和动态分别度量我国金融系统不同子市场间的风险联动水平及变动趋势。研究结果表明，我国金融系统风险溢出效应整体水平较高，各市场间联动性较强；市场内部滞后效应大于市场之间溢出效应，两两有向溢出效应具有强不对称性；作为我国金融系统的风险中心，货币市场始终处于风险溢出方，但在金融危机时期，其对外风险溢出效应相对减弱，而大宗商品市场、资本市场、房地产市场等其余市场的风险溢出效应相对增强。值得注意的是，当前我国金融系统整体风险溢出水平较高，市场间风险相关性较强，需要进一步加强系统性风险的监测与防范。     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of ramucirumab treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who progressed on sorafenib with α-fetoprotein concentrations of at least 400 ng/ml

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of ramucirumab versus placebo for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who progressed on sorafenib with α-fetoprotein concentrations (AFP) of at least 400?ng/ml in the United States.

Methods: A Markov model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of ramucirumab. Health outcomes were measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). With TreeAge software, the disease process was modeled as three health states: progression-free survival (PFS), progressive disease (PD), and death. Costs were extracted from the REACH-2 trial, and utility was derived from published literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated to compare ramucirumab with placebo. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were developed to examine the robustness of the results.

Results: In the base case analysis, ramucirumab therapy had a cost of $55,508.41 and generated 0.54 QALYs, while placebo therapy had a cost of $761.09 and generated 0.47 QALYs, leading to an additional $54,747.32 in costs and 0.07 QALYs. The ICER was $782,104.57 per QALY, which was much higher than the willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY. According to sensitivity analyses, the utility of PD in the two groups was the dominant parameter influencing the ICER.

Conclusion: Although ramucirumab was associated with prolonged survival for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma who progressed on sorafenib treatment with an AFP of at least 400?ng/ml, it is not a cost-effective treatment from a United States payer perspective.     

农村改厕新技术新产品推广应用问题与对策研究

［目的］厕所既是一个国家和地区发展水准和文明程度的体现，也与人民群众的健康息息相关。随着我国农村人居环境整治力度的不断加强，农村改厕新技术新产品不断涌现，加强其市场化研究可为建立农村改厕新技术新产品市场化机制、打赢“厕所革命”攻坚战提供决策参考。［方法］文章基于农村改厕新技术新产品区域适用性分析与各地农村改厕工作推进情况，结合实地调研形成的判断。［结果］我国农村改厕存在政府支持政策体系不完善、新技术新产品研发推广市场导向不足、行业缺乏规范和农户参与意识薄弱等主要问题。［结论］破除农村改厕新技术新产品市场化困境，需要科学合理加大资金支持、搭建新技术新产品市场化平台、构建政产学研协作推进机制、加强农村改厕的规范化管理、鼓励多种形式的社会化服务、加大宣传培训促进市场推广，多措并举建立市场化机制。     

从天文之美到暗夜保护——科学、艺术、环保融合理念下的天文科普实践

科学普及是实现国家创新发展的两翼之一，是提升全民科学文化素质的重要工作。针对新时代中，公众对科普服务的多元化需要，分析论述作为自然科学之一的天文学具有天然的艺术美属性，具备很强的科学与艺术相结合开展科普工作的基础。同时，从天文观测与暗夜的密切关系出发，论述了在“我们应该追求人与自然和谐”的科学环保观的理念下，将暗夜星空保护融入天文科普中的必要性，分享了北京天文馆将天文之美、暗夜保护等内容融入天文知识传播中的科普实践工作案例，得出了开展科学、艺术、环保融合理念下的天文科普工作符合公众和时代需求的结论。     

"赛课结合"在中职《服装陈列设计》课程中的实践探讨

为提高中职服装设计专业学生综合素质和就业能力,在《服装陈列设计》课程中提出了一种“赛课结合”的教学模式。理论课堂以项目驱动形式,采用参与式教学法引导学生在课堂中主动参与学习讨论;通过“服装陈列创新工作室”第二课堂,带领学生参加相关学科竞赛,以“课堂+比赛”的方式达到教学相长的目的。     

对我国离岸加工软件出口的思考

进入21世纪,软件业作为信息产业的核心,已成为决定21世纪国家竞争力的战略性先导产业。我国政府将软件产业置于战略产业的高度,给予国家政策的重点扶持,尤其是近年来对于软件产品出口的扶植力度不断加大。在政府和社会各界的关注和大力支持下,我国的软件产品出口近年来取得了长足进展,2000年出口4亿美元,2001年出口7.2亿美元,2002年出口15亿美元,2003年上半年尽管受SARS疫情影响,增长速度有所放缓,但仍达到8亿美元。然而我们应清醒地看到,相对于世界软件市场的整体规模,我国的软件产品出口仍处于比较落后的状态,在2002年的500亿美元世界软…     

中国经济运行中的债券融资变迁:金融脱媒视角

改革以来，债券市场在中国金融体系的相对重要性不断上升，成为引致金融脱媒的重要载体。债券市场在中国引发的金融脱媒表现出明显的阶段性。之所以会出现这样一种状态，是因为企业债市场一度受到“隐性担保”等因素约束，政府及作为既得利益者的商业银行均不愿其得到发展。2005年以来，在金融管制日益放松的背景下，中国的商业银行意外地成为推动并参与企业债市场的重要主体，进而演变出一个与债券市场相伴生的银—企“双赢”格局。     

美国经济结构及其政策效应分析

数理模型证明,在可出口品、可进口品和非贸易品的经济结构中,非贸易品需求效应和资源移动效应的数量变化依赖于相对价格供求弹性的大小。回归分析表明,非贸易品相对价格与非贸易品相对需求和供给之间符合一般的供求规律,且价格上升所引起的供给增加大于价格上升所引致的需求下降,这意味着非贸易品在从国际部门吸收要素。以1955-2011年为样本,研究影响美国经济结构的形成因素时,结果显示经济政策是影响贸易部门的重要成本因素,财政税收政策对行业投资的调节作用大于货币政策。